At the 2026 Association for Education Finance & Policy conference in Chicago, two themes stood out. The first focused on Why Teachers Ignore So Much PD – and What Makes Them Use It. The second turns to another issue that should matter to superintendents, district leaders, and principals: the strength of the principal pipeline.

Across four presentations, researchers discussed principal preparation, leadership pathway funding, principal hiring, and principals’ learning needs after placement. The message was clear: District leaders should think about the pipeline as a system, not just a vacancy-filling exercise.

Let’s explore the research findings.

1. Measuring principal preparation is harder than it looks

A presentation from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign reviewed the literature on the effectiveness of principal preparation programs and found the field still lacks a clear consensus on how these programs should be measured. The review organized studies across recruitment, selection, pathway, and effectiveness. The session highlighted five program features that appeared repeatedly in the literature: job-embedded mentorship, curriculum alignment, peer engagement, faculty experience, and strong university-district partnerships.

The researchers cautioned that later school outcomes cannot be attributed cleanly to principal preparation alone because outcomes are also shaped by prior experience, school placement, and support after entry into the role. For district leaders, that means it is more practical to pay attention to how preparation connects to local districts than to assume a simple one-to-one link between a prep program and later outcomes.

2. Financial support may help candidates move faster without fixing deeper equity problems

A presentation from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas examined Nevada’s Urban Leadership Pathway Program, supported by ESSER funding. The program provided tuition assistance and mentoring support to aspiring principals.

As presented in the session, the program did not show a clear measurable effect on diversifying the assistant principal applicant pool or the administrators ultimately hired. It did, however, appear to help participants get hired faster, often within their first year of eligibility. The session also noted that the $8,000 support did not cover the full cost of the program, which may have limited access and impact.

That is a useful caution for districts. A pipeline initiative may improve speed of entry without truly broadening access.

3. High-need schools may be losing candidates because of process, not just supply

A presentation from Vanderbilt University looked at principal hiring in a large urban district and offered one of the most practical takeaways of the session. Low-economic-disadvantage schools received substantially more applicants on average than high-economic-disadvantage schools (about 31 applicants versus 19). The presentation also indicated that job openings and interviews occurred later in higher-need schools, and top-ranked resumes in lower-need schools were more likely to lead to interviews.

That shifts the conversation. Some schools may not be struggling only because the applicant pool is weaker. They may also be losing stronger candidates because the process moves more slowly in the schools that need leadership most. For district leaders, that is not just a labor-market problem; it is a process problem.

4. Hiring a principal does not end the pipeline

A presentation from the Learning Policy Institute pushed the conversation beyond preparation and selection. Its core message was that principals’ professional learning needs continue to change across their careers. The session described this pattern as not neatly linear by years of experience, and one recurring theme was that many principals do not fully know what support they need until they are already confronting new demands. One quote captured that sentiment clearly: “I didn’t know what I didn’t know at the beginning.”

The presentation also suggested context matters. Prior learning experiences, state conditions, and school settings all shape what principals want from ongoing development. In other words, the pipeline does not end with placement. It continues through induction, support, and learning on the job.

Principal Pipeline Implications for NEE Districts

These AEFP sessions line up well with NEE’s existing view that principal quality should be supported over time, not reduced to a one-time hiring decision or a single evaluation score. That is why the principal pipeline is worth thinking about more broadly.

District leaders might consider the following questions:

  • Are we treating the principal pipeline as a connected sequence of stages or only reacting when a vacancy appears?
  • Are our investments broadening access or just helping some candidates move faster?
  • Are our hiring timelines unintentionally disadvantaging higher-need schools?
  • Are we supporting principals differently as their needs evolve or assuming one-size-fits-all leadership PD is enough?

Takeaway

The takeaway is not that districts face one principal shortage problem. It is that many districts may be facing several smaller pipeline problems connected together — in preparation, access, hiring, and ongoing support.

District leaders should look at the pipeline more broadly, rather than waiting until the next vacancy forces the issue.

Xintong Li is an experienced researcher specialized in quantitative methods and educational research. He joined the NEE team in 2018 as a senior research analyst. He received his PhD in Statistics, Measurement, and Evaluation in Education at the University of Missouri. He has publications in methodological foundations and applications and is skilled in advance statistical modeling, programming and large-scale simulations using high-performance computer clusters. His current research interests include causal inference using cross-sectional data and motivation in education.

The Network for Educator Effectiveness (NEE) is a simple yet powerful comprehensive system for educator evaluation that helps educators grow, students learn, and schools improve. Developed by preK-12 practitioners and experts at the University of Missouri, NEE brings together classroom observation, student feedback, teacher curriculum planning, and professional development as measures of effectiveness in a secure online portal designed to promote educator growth and development.